An Offhand remark leads to a great diplomatic row.
Reference to Reuters. A recent unscripted comment by the newly appointed Prime Minister of Japan Sanae Takaki has caused the worst diplomatic break in China in the recent years. She did not imply that her administration was going to adopt a more aggressive policy approach, but her public remarks about the possible Japanese reaction to a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan has placed Tokyo in a self-defeating situation, which its leaders believe is beyond repair.
China retaliates with an Economic Strategy.
Expediency and determination were the responses of Beijing. It put a freeze on the tourist sector, halted importation of Japanese seafood as well as halting many cultural exchanges and official meetings. Japanese officials also assert that Beijing insisted on a total retraction which Tokyo is unable to achieve.
One of the senior officials admitted that the comment was not justified, but argued that it was based on Japan long-standing security stance. However, they emphasized that Japan cannot withdraw it, despite the fact that tension can escalate.
At Home Public Opinion is Still Shaken.
Throughout the Japanese electorate, Takiichi is still popular among the electorate despite the criticism that has been directed at him externally. Her office made it clear that her words do not change the official position of Japan and Tokyo is open to negotiation. The foreign ministry of China is yet to respond.
A Long Diplomatic Freeze Seems To Be a Probability.
To this end, the Japanese leaders have over the years not made direct references to Taiwan as part of security talks but instead they use the strategic ambiguity similar to that of the United States. However, observers believe that Takiichi has been unusually blunt and this has now limited her choices.
Jeremy Chan, who specializes in the Northeast Asia, had argued that the spillover would spawn a long cooling process in Japan-China relationships during the entire time Takaichi served. Beijing has already called off a planned meeting between Takiichi and Chinese Premier Li��ẽqiang at this weekend in South Africa at the G20 summit.
Economic Risks Increase with Paining of Relations.
Economists are warning that the long-term strains can cause great economic damages on Japan. In 2012, a similar break caused by Tokyo nationalising contentious islands was able to halt high level diplomacy over a period of more than two years and provoked massive boycotts in China.
It has been estimated that the travel boycott alone would cost Japan, which is the main target of the boycott by China, an estimated annual cost of over US 14 billion and a large scale consumer boycott would cripple major industries especially in the automotive sector that will affect almost 1 percent of Japanese GDP. In addition, China maintains a share in the import of nearly 60 percent of the rare earths in Japan essential to electronics, vehicles, and high-tech production. Therefore, restricting the export of minerals will have a significant effect on the Japanese production chains.
The Growing Chasm is the Feature of Symbolic Diplomacy.
This is highlighted by the fact that the encounter of the top-level diplomats in Beijing this week was an indication of the level of the worsening in their relationship. Chinese official Liu Jinsong also wore a traditional 5-button suit, which was a member of the 1919 anti-Japanese student movement, which was an undisputable symbolic gesture. Television shots showed him standing alone, hands in pockets, a stance that was easily decoded by many as deliberately disrespectful in high-level diplomacy.
According to analysts, this type of open protests is not common to China, which normally prefers to protest quietly. The symbolism used is deliberate, meaning that Beijing was willing to show its dissatisfaction to the rest of the world.
Rhetoric gets even heated with each side seeking a way ahead.
Chinese commentators who have state affiliations have stepped up personal attacks on Takiichi, one of which seemingly threatened her safety but was taken down. One other commentator labeled her an evil witch and another militaristic social media account shared a cartoon of her burning the pacifist constitution of Japan.
Japanese officials argue that there can be no straight way to restore relationship that currently exists. As a matter of fact, one of the senior diplomats confessed that the discussions have not yet attained a phase where it can be seen to be improving.
One of the U.S. diplomats gave a pessimistic response, indicating that the issue can only subside when the relations of China with the Washington will face further challenges thus compelling Beijing to find better relations with Tokyo.
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